The Age Factor: How Canelo’s Decline And Crawford’s Aging Could Impact A Blockbuster Matchup

Canelo Alvarez’s decline and Terence Crawford’s visible aging could play a big part in their superfight on September 13th at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Last Performances Tell a Grim Story

Turki Alalshikh has invested a lot of money into this match, believing the aging greats will turn in what he says is ‘The Fight of the Century.’ Based on their last performances, we may not get that. Alalshikh is expecting greatness, but it may be too late in the game for these two aging warriors to perform anywhere near what they did 3000+ years ago.

Now, they’re both living off their past accomplishments. Crawford looked so feeble and old in his last fight at 154 that he wouldn’t have beaten any of the big four in the division.

Undisputed super middleweight champion Canelo (63-2-2, 39 KOs) looked like the shell of the fighter he once was in his last fight against William Scull on May 3, 2024. He won, but his output was anemic and showed little interest in attacking Scull.

Why Crawford is Canelo’s Kryptonite

“Crawford might be the kryptonite for Saul Alvarez. I think if he were going to fight Saul Alvarez, this is the right time to fight him now. We’re seeing elements of decline in Saul Alvarez,” said commentator Simon Jordan to talkSport Boxing about Canelo Alvarez. “I believe Crawford will beat Saul Alvarez.”

Fans would have a clearer picture of whether Crawford, 37, could be the “kryptonite” for Canelo if the Omaha, Nebraska native had chosen to stay busy in the last 483 days, and fought once or twice at 168 to show what he can do in this weight class.

As it is, all we know is that Crawford is moving up two weight classes, about to turn 38 years old on September 28th, and is coming off a narrow win over Israil Madrimov in his debut at 154 on May 3, 2024. If fans ignore that fight, the lack of experience, and the year of inactivity, it’s easier to pick Crawford to defeat Canelo.

Is This Truly a Fight of the Century?

If we’re going to go on how well Crawford looked in his last fight at welterweight against Errol Spence, it makes sense to pick him over Alvarez. However, the Madrimov fight showed that Crawford’s power didn’t carry over, and he appeared to be older, having sat out of the ring for a year following his win over Spence. He’d aged in that year. Crawford wasn’t as young-looking against Madrimov as he’d been 279 days previous to that against Spence on July 29, 2023.

“He’s trying to achieve the unachievable against Canelo Alvarez. Can he do it? I think he can,” said commentator Spencer Oliver about Crawford. “I think this guy creates history. Terence Crawford is that good. His best weight is at welterweight.”

Crawford didn’t look overly impressive in his last fight, getting out-punched by the more powerful WBA junior middleweight champion Madrimov. Madrimov landed the harder punches in that fight, and he was doing the backing up. Madrimov isn’t as big as Canelo or as strong.

Punch Stats Tell The Story

• Terence Crawford: 95 of 433 for 22% connect rate
• Israil Madrimov: 84 of 275 for 31%

What we don’t know is whether Canelo can fight as hard as Madrimov did to push Terence the way that he did. Canelo hasn’t shown great stamina in his fights since his match against WBA light heavyweight champion Dmitry Bivol on May 7, 2022.